Uncertainty and the unexpected

A clear point made in previous posts has been that we should “expect the unexpected,” in the new order of things. While “expecting the unexpected” may sound like a cliché, there are a host of important leadership and knowledge management issues represented:

• How do we deal with events that we have no prior knowledge or experience of?

I think that most of us would say, “We’d ask someone we thought could provide the basis of a solution based on their experience.” Or, “I’d call my team together and work through the issues to find a solution.”

The implication:

Dealing with the unexpected requires participants to have good informal or formal social networks that can be enacted quickly.

• What if the “wicked” problem we are facing continues to increase in magnitude through events our of your direct control and others your networks fail? At the same time, others from outside of our network are brought in “to provide additional support” because the problem is becoming more dire to the firms’ (and your) continuity.

At this stage, responses would be more difficult to represent. People would have their own approach to the problem and how it should be solved. However, many people would comment that the “incursion” of outside assistance may not improve the situation.

The implication:

As pressure to perform increases, managerial actions that essentially throw resources at the problem is likely to lead to more confusion and sub-optimal outcomes.

• The next stage of the unexpected occurs when the group is frustrated in its attempts to resolve the issue and a sense of panic starts to take hold. Your leadership is threatened and traditional allies seem to be focusing on trivialities or self-preservation. 

The implication:

The group begins to disintegrate when it fails to attend to the unexpected. Disintegration drives fear. Fear drives a wide variety of self-survival behaviours that loop back to create further friction, lost opportunity, and desertion. 

The scenario I have described is extreme to make a point. However, we are often faced by similar “accidents and emergencies” during our careers. Unfortunately, the prognosis for the story is not a happy one because continuing on the current trajectory will lead to further shocks that will lead inevitably to total collapse. 

If only a miracle can redeem the situation, could the likelihood of it occurring have been reduced in the first place? My answer is YES and I will tell you why in my next post.